National Interest: Has the world overestimated Russia's military power?

 

 Pentagon assessments and news reports from Ukraine suggest that Russian forces may be experiencing significant morale problems, a factor likely to undermine their fighting will.

This was reported by Chris Osborne, defense editor for The National Interest, noting initially to what US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said that Russian President Vladimir Putin himself may have "overestimated the capabilities of his military".

Unlike the Ukrainian defenders fighting for their homeland, the Russians are fighting on higher orders that push them to risk their lives for causes unlikely to be very important to them, according to the Osborne report.

Realizing the expected impact of this moral deficit on the performance of Russian soldiers, some may raise what appears to be a "fair and appropriate" question, according to Osborne, that is, "Has the world overestimated Russia's military capabilities?"

To illustrate the circumstances of this issue, the writer points out that the huge Russian convoy heading towards Kyiv is still stalled, and the Russian army is still struggling to overcome major setbacks in logistics and sustainability.

Moreover, Osborne says, Russian forces’ protection mechanisms are being challenged by Ukrainian ambushes that destroyed Russian combat vehicles at key choke points, at a time when many observers believe that the Russians may have underestimated the determination, combat prowess, and sheer strength of the Ukrainian army. The strength of the Russian army may have been greatly exaggerated, according to the author.

And he quotes Pentagon spokesman John Kirby as saying - when asked about the reason for Russia's inability to use its huge arsenal of aircraft to achieve air supremacy - that what is clear is that Moscow's coordination of air and ground in particular was not effective, noting that Russia has not yet established its full control. Over the skies of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian air defense systems have proven their effectiveness.

This prompted the writer to ask: When it comes to military force that is actually ready for use, is Russia a paper tiger? To answer this question, the writer cites what Global Firepower mentioned that Russia operates up to 12 thousand tanks on the Although many of them are likely Cold War-era tanks without thermal targeting scopes, they also lack the command and control systems needed to destroy modern American and NATO tanks.
Remains of the Russian fighting aircraft are seen at a residential area, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Chernihiv
Wreckage of a Russian military plane that crashed in Ukraine (Reuters)

Although Putin boasted about Russian weapons supposed to operate at supersonic speed, and despite the fact that Russian state-owned media had more than once promoted Russian military experiences and technologies, as well as the Russian Su-57 fighter jets of the fifth generation, and talked about the tank. The new Russian advanced "T-14 Armata", the author believes that regardless of the relative development or potential superiority of these systems, there is a simple "numbers" equation that must be observed.

To clarify this, the writer says that according to the Russian government media, the Russian army has about 12 Su-57 aircraft and a smaller number of T-14 Armata.

Even assuming that these tanks have the same capability that Russia claims, they will outnumber NATO developed tanks in any major engagement, and this is the same for advanced combat aircraft.

The writer adds that there is an impression among many analysts that the US naval and air forces are superior to their Russian counterparts, and it was also common among them that Russia’s superiority lies in its ground forces, however: Does Russia’s war on Ukraine reveal that Russia’s integrated ground combat capabilities, which were believed since Long period it typical has been greatly exaggerated?

This is what the writer believes - judging from Kendall's talk - that it may be true, and he is quoted in this regard as saying, "Putin has severely underestimated the global reaction that Russia's war on Ukraine may provoke, and he has severely underestimated the will and courage of the Ukrainian people, in addition to exaggerating it." in appreciating the strength of his army, and perhaps most important of all, he has severely underestimated the reaction of both the United States and its friends and allies.